Baker Mayfield vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 6? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 6
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.6 projected points (10.7 vs 10.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Baker Mayfield faces PIT, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces JAX, the 23rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield: a clear but modest edge of 9.8 points of value over replacement (-84.0 vs -93.8).
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 130.9 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 opponent | PIT | JAX | |
| Projected Week 6 points | 10.7 | 10.1 | Mayfield +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 28) | #22 | #23 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 189.0 | 179.2 | Mayfield +9.8 pts |
| Points per game | 11.1 | 10.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -84.0 | -93.8 | Mayfield +9.8 |
| Overall rank | #162 | #186 | Mayfield by 24 |
| Position rank | QB20 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 155.7 | Stroud +24.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 8 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or C.J. Stroud in Week 6?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.6 projected points (10.7 vs 10.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 189.0 fantasy points with -84.0 value over replacement, vs 179.2 points and -93.8 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).