Head to head · QB · 2026
C.J. Stroud vs Tyler Shough
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
The model's pick
C.J. Stroud
This one is a coin flip. The model leans C.J. Stroud by 1.1 points of value over replacement (-78.1 vs -79.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: C.J. Stroud goes first at ADP 147.5 vs 151.0 for Tyler Shough.
| C.J. Stroud | Tyler Shough | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | HOU | NOR | |
| Overall rank | #175 | #177 | Stroud by 2 |
| Position rank | QB21 | QB22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 185.1 | 184.0 | Stroud +1.1 pts |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -78.1 | -79.2 | Stroud +1.1 |
| Market ADP | 147.5 | 151.0 | Shough +3.5 cheaper |
Should I draft C.J. Stroud or Tyler Shough in 2026 fantasy football?
C.J. Stroud. He projects 185.1 fantasy points with -78.1 value over replacement, vs 184.0 points and -79.2 for Tyler Shough (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.