Tyler Shough vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (12.4 vs 11.4).
Tyler Shough faces LV, the 13th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces IND, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tyler Shough, and it isn't close: 28.5 points of value over replacement separate them (-62.9 vs -91.4).
The draft market agrees: Tyler Shough goes first at ADP 137.8 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
| Tyler ShoughNOR | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | LV | IND | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 12.4 | 11.4 | Shough +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #13 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 208.5 | 180.0 | Shough +28.5 pts |
| Points per game | 12.3 | 10.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -62.9 | -91.4 | Shough +28.5 |
| Overall rank | #140 | #176 | Shough by 36 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 137.8 | 155.7 | Stroud +17.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 8 |
Should I start Tyler Shough or C.J. Stroud in Week 3?
Start Tyler Shough this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (12.4 vs 11.4).
Should I draft Tyler Shough or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Tyler Shough. He projects 208.5 fantasy points with -62.9 value over replacement, vs 180.0 points and -91.4 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).