Jordan Love vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jordan Love by 0.3 projected points (11.7 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jordan Love faces ATL, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces IND, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jordan Love, and it isn't close: 16.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-75.1 vs -91.4).
The draft market agrees: Jordan Love goes first at ADP 139.2 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
| Jordan LoveGNB | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | ATL | IND | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 11.7 | 11.4 | Love +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 196.3 | 180.0 | Love +16.2 pts |
| Points per game | 11.5 | 10.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -75.1 | -91.4 | Love +16.2 |
| Overall rank | #154 | #176 | Love by 22 |
| Position rank | QB20 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 139.2 | 155.7 | Stroud +16.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 8 |
Should I start Jordan Love or C.J. Stroud in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jordan Love by 0.3 projected points (11.7 vs 11.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jordan Love or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Jordan Love. He projects 196.3 fantasy points with -75.1 value over replacement, vs 180.0 points and -91.4 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).