Baker Mayfield vs Bryce Young
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bryce Young by 0.0 projected points (10.7 vs 10.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Bryce Young faces DET, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 29th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Baker Mayfield ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield, and it isn't close: 29.8 points of value over replacement separate them (-64.2 vs -94.1).
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 130.9 vs 168.2 for Bryce Young.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Bryce YoungCAR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | GB | DET | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 10.7 | 10.7 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #29 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 206.6 | 176.8 | Mayfield +29.8 pts |
| Points per game | 12.2 | 10.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -64.2 | -94.1 | Mayfield +29.8 |
| Overall rank | #143 | #184 | Mayfield by 41 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 168.2 | Young +37.3 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Bryce Young in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Bryce Young by 0.0 projected points (10.7 vs 10.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Bryce Young in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 206.6 fantasy points with -64.2 value over replacement, vs 176.8 points and -94.1 for Bryce Young (QB, PPR).