Caleb Williams vs Geno Smith
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 0.0 projected points (14.1 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Caleb Williams ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Caleb Williams by 2.2 points of value over replacement (-21.1 vs -23.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Geno SmithNYJ | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NYJ | CHI | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 14.1 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #18 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 247.7 | 245.5 | Williams +2.2 pts |
| Points per game | 14.6 | 14.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.1 | -23.3 | Williams +2.2 |
| Overall rank | #90 | #92 | Williams by 2 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB18 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | Doubtful | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Geno Smith in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 0.0 projected points (14.1 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Geno Smith in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 247.7 fantasy points with -21.1 value over replacement, vs 245.5 points and -23.3 for Geno Smith (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.