Caleb Williams vs Sam Darnold
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.8 projected points (14.9 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Sam Darnold faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Caleb Williams ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 5.4 points of value over replacement (-21.1 vs -26.5).
The draft market agrees: Caleb Williams goes first at ADP 86.0 vs 144.4 for Sam Darnold.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Sam DarnoldSEA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NYJ | LAC | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 14.9 | Darnold +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #8 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 247.7 | 242.2 | Williams +5.4 pts |
| Points per game | 14.6 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.1 | -26.5 | Williams +5.4 |
| Overall rank | #90 | #97 | Williams by 7 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB19 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 144.4 | Darnold +58.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 11 | |
| Injury flag | Doubtful | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Sam Darnold in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 0.8 projected points (14.9 vs 14.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Sam Darnold in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 247.7 fantasy points with -21.1 value over replacement, vs 242.2 points and -26.5 for Sam Darnold (QB, PPR).