Caleb Williams vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (16.0 vs 14.1).
Lamar Jackson faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 21st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Caleb Williams ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams: a clear but modest edge of 6.3 points of value over replacement (-21.1 vs -27.4).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Lamar Jackson first (ADP 54.6 vs 86.0). If the model is right, Caleb Williams is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Doubtful (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NYJ | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 16.0 | Jackson +2.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #21 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 247.7 | 241.4 | Williams +6.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.6 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.1 | -27.4 | Williams +6.3 |
| Overall rank | #90 | #98 | Williams by 8 |
| Position rank | QB17 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 54.6 | Williams +31.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | Doubtful | Questionable |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson in Week 4?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (16.0 vs 14.1).
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 247.7 fantasy points with -21.1 value over replacement, vs 241.4 points and -27.4 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR).