Geno Smith vs Lamar Jackson
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (16.0 vs 14.1).
Lamar Jackson faces TEN, the 2nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Geno Smith ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 4.1 points of value over replacement (-23.3 vs -27.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Lamar Jackson carries an injury flag of Questionable (Undisclosed), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Lamar JacksonBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CHI | TEN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 16.0 | Jackson +2.0 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #2 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 245.5 | 241.4 | Smith +4.1 pts |
| Points per game | 14.4 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -23.3 | -27.4 | Smith +4.1 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #98 | Smith by 6 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB20 | |
| Market ADP | - | 54.6 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 13 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Geno Smith or Lamar Jackson in Week 4?
Start Lamar Jackson this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.0 projected points (16.0 vs 14.1).
Should I draft Geno Smith or Lamar Jackson in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 245.5 fantasy points with -23.3 value over replacement, vs 241.4 points and -27.4 for Lamar Jackson (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.