Geno Smith vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 0.3 projected points (14.1 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Geno Smith faces CHI, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 4.8 points of value over replacement (-23.3 vs -28.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Geno SmithNYJ | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CHI | CLE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.1 | 13.8 | Smith +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 245.5 | 240.7 | Smith +4.8 pts |
| Points per game | 14.4 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -23.3 | -28.0 | Smith +4.8 |
| Overall rank | #92 | #100 | Smith by 8 |
| Position rank | QB18 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | - | 183.1 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 9 |
Should I start Geno Smith or Aaron Rodgers in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Geno Smith by 0.3 projected points (14.1 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Geno Smith or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
Geno Smith. He projects 245.5 fantasy points with -23.3 value over replacement, vs 240.7 points and -28.0 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.