Sam Darnold vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Sam Darnold this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (14.9 vs 13.8).
Sam Darnold faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 1.5 points of value over replacement (-26.5 vs -28.0), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Sam Darnold goes first at ADP 144.4 vs 183.1 for Aaron Rodgers.
| Sam DarnoldSEA | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | CLE | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.9 | 13.8 | Darnold +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #8 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.2 | 240.7 | Darnold +1.5 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 14.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -26.5 | -28.0 | Darnold +1.5 |
| Overall rank | #97 | #100 | Darnold by 3 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB21 | |
| Market ADP | 144.4 | 183.1 | Rodgers +38.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 9 |
Should I start Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers in Week 4?
Start Sam Darnold this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (14.9 vs 13.8).
Should I draft Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
Sam Darnold. He projects 242.2 fantasy points with -26.5 value over replacement, vs 240.7 points and -28.0 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.