Sam Darnold vs Justin Herbert
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Sam Darnold this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.8 projected points (14.9 vs 13.1).
Sam Darnold faces LAC, the 8th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Sam Darnold by 3.3 points of value over replacement (-26.5 vs -29.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Justin Herbert first (ADP 103.4 vs 144.4). If the model is right, Sam Darnold is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Sam DarnoldSEA | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | LAC | SEA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 14.9 | 13.1 | Darnold +1.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #8 | #27 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 242.2 | 238.9 | Darnold +3.3 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 14.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -26.5 | -29.8 | Darnold +3.3 |
| Overall rank | #97 | #103 | Darnold by 6 |
| Position rank | QB19 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 144.4 | 103.4 | Darnold +41.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Sam Darnold or Justin Herbert in Week 4?
Start Sam Darnold this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.8 projected points (14.9 vs 13.1).
Should I draft Sam Darnold or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Sam Darnold. He projects 242.2 fantasy points with -26.5 value over replacement, vs 238.9 points and -29.8 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.