Aaron Rodgers vs Justin Herbert
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.7 projected points (13.8 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 1.8 points of value over replacement (-28.0 vs -29.8), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Justin Herbert first (ADP 103.4 vs 183.1). If the model is right, Aaron Rodgers is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CLE | SEA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.8 | 13.1 | Rodgers +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #19 | #27 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 240.7 | 238.9 | Rodgers +1.8 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 14.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.0 | -29.8 | Rodgers +1.8 |
| Overall rank | #100 | #103 | Rodgers by 3 |
| Position rank | QB21 | QB22 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | 103.4 | Rodgers +79.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 9 | 7 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Justin Herbert in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Aaron Rodgers by 0.7 projected points (13.8 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 240.7 fantasy points with -28.0 value over replacement, vs 238.9 points and -29.8 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.