Aaron Rodgers vs Carson Wentz
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.0 projected points (13.8 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Carson Wentz faces MIA, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces CLE, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Aaron Rodgers ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Aaron Rodgers: a clear but modest edge of 11.8 points of value over replacement (-28.0 vs -39.9).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Carson WentzMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | CLE | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.8 | 13.8 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #19 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 240.7 | 228.9 | Rodgers +11.8 pts |
| Points per game | 14.2 | 13.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.0 | -39.9 | Rodgers +11.8 |
| Overall rank | #100 | #116 | Rodgers by 16 |
| Position rank | QB21 | QB24 | |
| Market ADP | 183.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 16 | - | |
| Bye week | 9 | 6 |
Should I start Aaron Rodgers or Carson Wentz in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.0 projected points (13.8 vs 13.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers or Carson Wentz in 2026 fantasy football?
Aaron Rodgers. He projects 240.7 fantasy points with -28.0 value over replacement, vs 228.9 points and -39.9 for Carson Wentz (QB, PPR).