Justin Herbert vs Carson Wentz
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.7 projected points (13.8 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Carson Wentz faces MIA, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Herbert: a clear but modest edge of 10.0 points of value over replacement (-29.8 vs -39.9).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Carson WentzMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SEA | MIA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.1 | 13.8 | Wentz +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #27 | #12 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 238.9 | 228.9 | Herbert +10.0 pts |
| Points per game | 14.1 | 13.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -29.8 | -39.9 | Herbert +10.0 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #116 | Herbert by 13 |
| Position rank | QB22 | QB24 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | - | |
| Bye week | 7 | 6 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Carson Wentz in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 0.7 projected points (13.8 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Carson Wentz in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 238.9 fantasy points with -29.8 value over replacement, vs 228.9 points and -39.9 for Carson Wentz (QB, PPR).