Justin Herbert vs Daniel Jones
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Daniel Jones by 0.3 projected points (13.3 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Daniel Jones faces WAS, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Justin Herbert by 3.4 points of value over replacement (-29.8 vs -33.2), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Justin Herbert goes first at ADP 103.4 vs 160.6 for Daniel Jones.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Daniel JonesIND | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SEA | WAS | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.1 | 13.3 | Jones +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #27 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 238.9 | 235.6 | Herbert +3.4 pts |
| Points per game | 14.1 | 13.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -29.8 | -33.2 | Herbert +3.4 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #108 | Herbert by 5 |
| Position rank | QB22 | QB23 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 160.6 | Jones +57.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 13 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Daniel Jones in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Daniel Jones by 0.3 projected points (13.3 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Daniel Jones in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 238.9 fantasy points with -29.8 value over replacement, vs 235.6 points and -33.2 for Daniel Jones (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.