Justin Herbert vs Drake Maye
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.1 projected points (13.2 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Drake Maye faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 27th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Justin Herbert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Justin Herbert: a clear but modest edge of 14.1 points of value over replacement (-29.8 vs -43.9).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Drake Maye first (ADP 51.8 vs 103.4). If the model is right, Justin Herbert is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Justin HerbertLAC | Drake MayeNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | SEA | BUF | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.1 | 13.2 | Maye +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #27 | #15 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 238.9 | 224.9 | Herbert +14.1 pts |
| Points per game | 14.1 | 13.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -29.8 | -43.9 | Herbert +14.1 |
| Overall rank | #103 | #118 | Herbert by 15 |
| Position rank | QB22 | QB25 | |
| Market ADP | 103.4 | 51.8 | Herbert +51.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 5 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I start Justin Herbert or Drake Maye in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Drake Maye by 0.1 projected points (13.2 vs 13.1), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Justin Herbert or Drake Maye in 2026 fantasy football?
Justin Herbert. He projects 238.9 fantasy points with -29.8 value over replacement, vs 224.9 points and -43.9 for Drake Maye (QB, PPR).