Daniel Jones vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Daniel Jones this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (13.3 vs 11.9).
Daniel Jones faces WAS, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Daniel Jones: a clear but modest edge of 11.5 points of value over replacement (-33.2 vs -44.7).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Baker Mayfield first (ADP 130.9 vs 160.6). If the model is right, Daniel Jones is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Daniel JonesIND | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | WAS | GB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.3 | 11.9 | Jones +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #30 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 235.6 | 224.0 | Jones +11.5 pts |
| Points per game | 13.9 | 13.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -33.2 | -44.7 | Jones +11.5 |
| Overall rank | #108 | #120 | Jones by 12 |
| Position rank | QB23 | QB26 | |
| Market ADP | 160.6 | 130.9 | Jones +29.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 14 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 13 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield in Week 4?
Start Daniel Jones this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (13.3 vs 11.9).
Should I draft Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Daniel Jones. He projects 235.6 fantasy points with -33.2 value over replacement, vs 224.0 points and -44.7 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR).