Carson Wentz vs Baker Mayfield
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Carson Wentz this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (13.8 vs 11.9).
Carson Wentz faces MIA, the 12th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Carson Wentz by 4.9 points of value over replacement (-39.9 vs -44.7), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Carson WentzMIN | Baker MayfieldTAM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | MIA | GB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.8 | 11.9 | Wentz +1.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #30 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 228.9 | 224.0 | Wentz +4.9 pts |
| Points per game | 13.5 | 13.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -39.9 | -44.7 | Wentz +4.9 |
| Overall rank | #116 | #120 | Wentz by 4 |
| Position rank | QB24 | QB26 | |
| Market ADP | - | 130.9 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 10 | |
| Injury flag | None | Out |
Should I start Carson Wentz or Baker Mayfield in Week 4?
Start Carson Wentz this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (13.8 vs 11.9).
Should I draft Carson Wentz or Baker Mayfield in 2026 fantasy football?
Carson Wentz. He projects 228.9 fantasy points with -39.9 value over replacement, vs 224.0 points and -44.7 for Baker Mayfield (QB, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.