Baker Mayfield vs Jayden Daniels
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.1 projected points (11.9 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jayden Daniels faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield, and it isn't close: 23.0 points of value over replacement separate them (-44.7 vs -67.8).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jayden Daniels first (ADP 75.2 vs 130.9). If the model is right, Baker Mayfield is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Questionable (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Jayden DanielsWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | GB | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.9 | 11.8 | Mayfield +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #30 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 224.0 | 201.0 | Mayfield +23.0 pts |
| Points per game | 13.2 | 11.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -44.7 | -67.8 | Mayfield +23.0 |
| Overall rank | #120 | #151 | Mayfield by 31 |
| Position rank | QB26 | QB29 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 75.2 | Mayfield +55.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Out | Questionable |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Jayden Daniels in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Baker Mayfield by 0.1 projected points (11.9 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Jayden Daniels in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 224.0 fantasy points with -44.7 value over replacement, vs 201.0 points and -67.8 for Jayden Daniels (QB, PPR).