Baker Mayfield vs Cam Ward
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Baker Mayfield this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (11.9 vs 10.2).
Baker Mayfield faces GB, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Cam Ward faces BAL, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Baker Mayfield: a clear but modest edge of 11.3 points of value over replacement (-44.7 vs -56.0).
The draft market agrees: Baker Mayfield goes first at ADP 130.9 vs 173.1 for Cam Ward.
Health note: Baker Mayfield carries an injury flag of Out (Thumb), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Baker MayfieldTAM | Cam WardTEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | GB | BAL | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.9 | 10.2 | Mayfield +1.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #30 | #32 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 224.0 | 212.7 | Mayfield +11.3 pts |
| Points per game | 13.2 | 12.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -44.7 | -56.0 | Mayfield +11.3 |
| Overall rank | #120 | #132 | Mayfield by 12 |
| Position rank | QB26 | QB27 | |
| Market ADP | 130.9 | 173.1 | Ward +42.2 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 15 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 9 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Baker Mayfield or Cam Ward in Week 4?
Start Baker Mayfield this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.7 projected points (11.9 vs 10.2).
Should I draft Baker Mayfield or Cam Ward in 2026 fantasy football?
Baker Mayfield. He projects 224.0 fantasy points with -44.7 value over replacement, vs 212.7 points and -56.0 for Cam Ward (QB, PPR).