Drake Maye vs Michael Penix
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (13.2 vs 11.8).
Drake Maye faces BUF, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Drake Maye: a clear but modest edge of 14.4 points of value over replacement (-43.9 vs -58.3).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Drake MayeNWE | Michael PenixATL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BUF | NO | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 13.2 | 11.8 | Maye +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #15 | #25 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 224.9 | 210.5 | Maye +14.4 pts |
| Points per game | 13.2 | 12.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -43.9 | -58.3 | Maye +14.4 |
| Overall rank | #118 | #134 | Maye by 16 |
| Position rank | QB25 | QB28 | |
| Market ADP | 51.8 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 11 |
Should I start Drake Maye or Michael Penix in Week 4?
Start Drake Maye this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (13.2 vs 11.8).
Should I draft Drake Maye or Michael Penix in 2026 fantasy football?
Drake Maye. He projects 224.9 fantasy points with -43.9 value over replacement, vs 210.5 points and -58.3 for Michael Penix (QB, PPR).