Cam Ward vs Marcus Mariota
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Marcus Mariota this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (11.4 vs 10.2).
Marcus Mariota faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Cam Ward faces BAL, the 32nd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Cam Ward ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Cam Ward, and it isn't close: 19.4 points of value over replacement separate them (-56.0 vs -75.5).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Cam WardTEN | Marcus MariotaWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | BAL | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 10.2 | 11.4 | Mariota +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #32 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 212.7 | 193.3 | Ward +19.4 pts |
| Points per game | 12.5 | 11.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -56.0 | -75.5 | Ward +19.4 |
| Overall rank | #132 | #160 | Ward by 28 |
| Position rank | QB27 | QB30 | |
| Market ADP | 173.1 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 15 | - | |
| Bye week | 9 | 7 |
Should I start Cam Ward or Marcus Mariota in Week 4?
Start Marcus Mariota this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (11.4 vs 10.2).
Should I draft Cam Ward or Marcus Mariota in 2026 fantasy football?
Cam Ward. He projects 212.7 fantasy points with -56.0 value over replacement, vs 193.3 points and -75.5 for Marcus Mariota (QB, PPR).