Michael Penix vs Jayden Daniels
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.0 projected points (11.8 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jayden Daniels faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Michael Penix ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Michael Penix: a clear but modest edge of 9.5 points of value over replacement (-58.3 vs -67.8).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Questionable (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Michael PenixATL | Jayden DanielsWAS | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NO | IND | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.8 | 11.8 | Even |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 210.5 | 201.0 | Penix +9.5 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 11.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -58.3 | -67.8 | Penix +9.5 |
| Overall rank | #134 | #151 | Penix by 17 |
| Position rank | QB28 | QB29 | |
| Market ADP | - | 75.2 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 7 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | None | Questionable |
Should I start Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.0 projected points (11.8 vs 11.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Michael Penix or Jayden Daniels in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Penix. He projects 210.5 fantasy points with -58.3 value over replacement, vs 201.0 points and -67.8 for Jayden Daniels (QB, PPR).