Michael Penix vs Malik Willis
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Michael Penix this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.9 projected points (11.8 vs 8.9).
Michael Penix faces NO, the 25th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Malik Willis faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Michael Penix, and it isn't close: 35.2 points of value over replacement separate them (-58.3 vs -93.4).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Michael PenixATL | Malik WillisMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NO | MIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 11.8 | 8.9 | Penix +2.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #31 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 210.5 | 175.3 | Penix +35.2 pts |
| Points per game | 12.4 | 10.3 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -58.3 | -93.4 | Penix +35.2 |
| Overall rank | #134 | #196 | Penix by 62 |
| Position rank | QB28 | QB31 | |
| Market ADP | - | 161.8 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Michael Penix or Malik Willis in Week 4?
Start Michael Penix this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.9 projected points (11.8 vs 8.9).
Should I draft Michael Penix or Malik Willis in 2026 fantasy football?
Michael Penix. He projects 210.5 fantasy points with -58.3 value over replacement, vs 175.3 points and -93.4 for Malik Willis (QB, PPR).