Matthew Stafford vs Kyler Murray
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.8 projected points (15.2 vs 14.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Matthew Stafford faces DEN, the 18th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Kyler Murray faces TB, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Matthew Stafford, and it isn't close: 48.1 points of value over replacement separate them (-8.2 vs -56.3).
The draft market agrees: Matthew Stafford goes first at ADP 74.2 vs 129.2 for Kyler Murray.
| Matthew StaffordLAR | Kyler MurrayMIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | DEN | TB | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 15.2 | 14.4 | Stafford +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #18 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 263.7 | 215.7 | Stafford +48.1 pts |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 12.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -8.2 | -56.3 | Stafford +48.1 |
| Overall rank | #83 | #134 | Stafford by 51 |
| Position rank | QB14 | QB17 | |
| Market ADP | 74.2 | 129.2 | Murray +55.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Matthew Stafford or Kyler Murray in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Matthew Stafford by 0.8 projected points (15.2 vs 14.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Kyler Murray in 2026 fantasy football?
Matthew Stafford. He projects 263.7 fantasy points with -8.2 value over replacement, vs 215.7 points and -56.3 for Kyler Murray (QB, PPR).