Joe Burrow vs Justin Herbert
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 5.6 projected points separate them (20.3 vs 14.7).
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Justin Herbert faces SEA, the 30th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 27.5 points of value over replacement separate them (41.7 vs 14.2).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 103.4 for Justin Herbert.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Justin HerbertLAC | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | SEA | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 20.3 | 14.7 | Burrow +5.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #30 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 312.5 | 285.0 | Burrow +27.5 pts |
| Points per game | 18.4 | 16.8 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 41.7 | 14.2 | Burrow +27.5 |
| Overall rank | #40 | #60 | Burrow by 20 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB9 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 103.4 | Herbert +48.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in Week 4?
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 5.6 projected points separate them (20.3 vs 14.7).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 312.5 fantasy points with 41.7 value over replacement, vs 285.0 points and 14.2 for Justin Herbert (QB, PPR).