Joe Burrow vs Dak Prescott
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.4 projected points separate them (20.3 vs 17.0).
Joe Burrow faces JAX, the 4th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Dak Prescott faces HOU, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Joe Burrow, and it isn't close: 21.5 points of value over replacement separate them (41.7 vs 20.2).
The draft market agrees: Joe Burrow goes first at ADP 54.5 vs 65.3 for Dak Prescott.
| Joe BurrowCIN | Dak PrescottDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | HOU | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 20.3 | 17.0 | Burrow +3.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #4 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 312.5 | 291.1 | Burrow +21.5 pts |
| Points per game | 18.4 | 17.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 41.7 | 20.2 | Burrow +21.5 |
| Overall rank | #40 | #52 | Burrow by 12 |
| Position rank | QB6 | QB8 | |
| Market ADP | 54.5 | 65.3 | Prescott +10.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 5 | Rd 6 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 14 |
Should I start Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott in Week 4?
Start Joe Burrow this week, and it isn't close: 3.4 projected points separate them (20.3 vs 17.0).
Should I draft Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott in 2026 fantasy football?
Joe Burrow. He projects 312.5 fantasy points with 41.7 value over replacement, vs 291.1 points and 20.2 for Dak Prescott (QB, PPR).