Jayden Daniels vs Trevor Lawrence
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.6 projected points (17.5 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jayden Daniels faces NYG, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jayden Daniels, and it isn't close: 20.5 points of value over replacement separate them (22.7 vs 2.2).
The draft market agrees: Jayden Daniels goes first at ADP 75.2 vs 91.1 for Trevor Lawrence.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Questionable (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jayden DanielsWAS | Trevor LawrenceJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | NYG | PHI | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 17.5 | 16.9 | Daniels +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #15 | #11 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 295.7 | 275.2 | Daniels +20.5 pts |
| Points per game | 17.4 | 16.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 22.7 | 2.2 | Daniels +20.5 |
| Overall rank | #51 | #67 | Daniels by 16 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 75.2 | 91.1 | Lawrence +15.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 8 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 7 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Jayden Daniels or Trevor Lawrence in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jayden Daniels by 0.6 projected points (17.5 vs 16.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jayden Daniels or Trevor Lawrence in 2026 fantasy football?
Jayden Daniels. He projects 295.7 fantasy points with 22.7 value over replacement, vs 275.2 points and 2.2 for Trevor Lawrence (QB, PPR).