Jayden Daniels vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.3 projected points (17.9 vs 17.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Patrick Mahomes faces LV, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Jayden Daniels faces IND, the 14th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jayden Daniels ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jayden Daniels, and it isn't close: 15.6 points of value over replacement separate them (24.9 vs 9.3).
The draft market agrees: Jayden Daniels goes first at ADP 75.2 vs 104.0 for Patrick Mahomes.
Health note: Jayden Daniels carries an injury flag of Questionable (Elbow), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Jayden DanielsWAS | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | IND | LV | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.5 | 17.9 | Mahomes +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #14 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 295.7 | 280.1 | Daniels +15.6 pts |
| Points per game | 17.4 | 16.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 24.9 | 9.3 | Daniels +15.6 |
| Overall rank | #49 | #64 | Daniels by 15 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 75.2 | 104.0 | Mahomes +28.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.3 projected points (17.9 vs 17.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Jayden Daniels. He projects 295.7 fantasy points with 24.9 value over replacement, vs 280.1 points and 9.3 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).