Jake Ferguson vs Mark Andrews
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mark Andrews by 0.9 projected points (8.7 vs 7.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mark Andrews faces DAL, the 1st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces BAL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jake Ferguson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jake Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 5.8 points of value over replacement (-41.4 vs -47.1).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Mark Andrews first (ADP 133.0 vs 137.4). If the model is right, Jake Ferguson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Mark AndrewsBAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BAL | DAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 7.8 | 8.7 | Andrews +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #1 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.1 | 131.3 | Ferguson +5.8 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -41.4 | -47.1 | Ferguson +5.8 |
| Overall rank | #117 | #125 | Ferguson by 8 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE15 | |
| Market ADP | 137.4 | 133.0 | Ferguson +4.4 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 13 |
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Mark Andrews in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mark Andrews by 0.9 projected points (8.7 vs 7.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Mark Andrews in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 137.1 fantasy points with -41.4 value over replacement, vs 131.3 points and -47.1 for Mark Andrews (TE, PPR).