Dalton Kincaid vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (8.9 vs 7.7).
Dalton Kincaid faces LA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces TB, the 29th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 4.5 points of value over replacement (-33.9 vs -38.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Jake Ferguson first (ADP 137.4 vs 147.3). If the model is right, Dalton Kincaid is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | TB | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 8.9 | 7.7 | Kincaid +1.2 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #29 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 144.1 | 139.6 | Kincaid +4.5 pts |
| Points per game | 8.5 | 8.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -33.9 | -38.4 | Kincaid +4.5 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #112 | Kincaid by 3 |
| Position rank | TE11 | TE12 | |
| Market ADP | 147.3 | 137.4 | Kincaid +9.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 14 |
Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson in Week 5?
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.2 projected points (8.9 vs 7.7).
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Dalton Kincaid. He projects 144.1 fantasy points with -33.9 value over replacement, vs 139.6 points and -38.4 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.