Kyle Pitts vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
Start Kyle Pitts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (9.0 vs 8.0).
Kyle Pitts faces GB, the 25th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces BAL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kyle Pitts, and it isn't close: 24.1 points of value over replacement separate them (-13.5 vs -37.6).
The draft market agrees: Kyle Pitts goes first at ADP 80.8 vs 137.4 for Jake Ferguson.
| Kyle PittsATL | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | GB | BAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 9.0 | 8.0 | Pitts +1.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 163.7 | 139.6 | Pitts +24.1 pts |
| Points per game | 9.6 | 8.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -13.5 | -37.6 | Pitts +24.1 |
| Overall rank | #91 | #111 | Pitts by 20 |
| Position rank | TE9 | TE12 | |
| Market ADP | 80.8 | 137.4 | Ferguson +56.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 14 |
Should I start Kyle Pitts or Jake Ferguson in Week 3?
Start Kyle Pitts this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.1 projected points (9.0 vs 8.0).
Should I draft Kyle Pitts or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyle Pitts. He projects 163.7 fantasy points with -13.5 value over replacement, vs 139.6 points and -37.6 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR).