Kyle Pitts vs Dalton Kincaid
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.6 projected points (9.4 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dalton Kincaid faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Kyle Pitts faces GB, the 25th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Kyle Pitts ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 3, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Kyle Pitts, and it isn't close: 16.3 points of value over replacement separate them (-18.0 vs -34.3).
The draft market agrees: Kyle Pitts goes first at ADP 80.8 vs 147.3 for Dalton Kincaid.
| Kyle PittsATL | Dalton KincaidBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | GB | LAC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 8.9 | 9.4 | Kincaid +0.6 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #25 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 160.5 | 144.1 | Pitts +16.3 pts |
| Points per game | 9.4 | 8.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -18.0 | -34.3 | Pitts +16.3 |
| Overall rank | #94 | #108 | Pitts by 14 |
| Position rank | TE9 | TE11 | |
| Market ADP | 80.8 | 147.3 | Kincaid +66.5 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 7 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 11 | 7 |
Should I start Kyle Pitts or Dalton Kincaid in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.6 projected points (9.4 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Kyle Pitts or Dalton Kincaid in 2026 fantasy football?
Kyle Pitts. He projects 160.5 fantasy points with -18.0 value over replacement, vs 144.1 points and -34.3 for Dalton Kincaid (TE, PPR).