Dalton Kincaid vs Tucker Kraft
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.5 projected points (12.5 vs 10.0).
Dalton Kincaid faces NE, the 7th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tucker Kraft faces TB, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dalton Kincaid, and it isn't close: 33.5 points of value over replacement separate them (1.2 vs -32.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tucker Kraft first (ADP 105.7 vs 147.3). If the model is right, Dalton Kincaid is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Tucker KraftGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NE | TB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 12.5 | 10.0 | Kincaid +2.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #7 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 198.8 | 165.3 | Kincaid +33.5 pts |
| Points per game | 11.7 | 9.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 1.2 | -32.3 | Kincaid +33.5 |
| Overall rank | #68 | #107 | Kincaid by 39 |
| Position rank | TE10 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 147.3 | 105.7 | Kincaid +41.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 11 |
Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Tucker Kraft in Week 4?
Start Dalton Kincaid this week: a clear but modest edge of 2.5 projected points (12.5 vs 10.0).
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid or Tucker Kraft in 2026 fantasy football?
Dalton Kincaid. He projects 198.8 fantasy points with 1.2 value over replacement, vs 165.3 points and -32.3 for Tucker Kraft (TE, PPR).