Dalton Kincaid vs Dallas Goedert
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.9 projected points (8.9 vs 8.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dalton Kincaid faces LA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dallas Goedert faces JAX, the 14th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dalton Kincaid: a clear but modest edge of 7.4 points of value over replacement (-33.9 vs -41.3).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dallas Goedert first (ADP 121.6 vs 147.3). If the model is right, Dalton Kincaid is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Dallas GoedertPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | JAX | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 8.9 | 8.0 | Kincaid +0.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 144.1 | 136.7 | Kincaid +7.4 pts |
| Points per game | 8.5 | 8.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -33.9 | -41.3 | Kincaid +7.4 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #118 | Kincaid by 9 |
| Position rank | TE11 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 147.3 | 121.6 | Kincaid +25.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 10 |
Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Dallas Goedert in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dalton Kincaid by 0.9 projected points (8.9 vs 8.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid or Dallas Goedert in 2026 fantasy football?
Dalton Kincaid. He projects 144.1 fantasy points with -33.9 value over replacement, vs 136.7 points and -41.3 for Dallas Goedert (TE, PPR).