Dalton Kincaid vs Isaiah Likely
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.1 projected points (9.0 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Isaiah Likely faces WAS, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dalton Kincaid faces LA, the 8th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Dalton Kincaid ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dalton Kincaid: a clear but modest edge of 6.9 points of value over replacement (-33.9 vs -40.8).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Isaiah Likely first (ADP 136.6 vs 147.3). If the model is right, Dalton Kincaid is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Isaiah LikelyNYG | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | LA | WAS | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 8.9 | 9.0 | Likely +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #8 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 144.1 | 137.2 | Kincaid +6.9 pts |
| Points per game | 8.5 | 8.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -33.9 | -40.8 | Kincaid +6.9 |
| Overall rank | #109 | #115 | Kincaid by 6 |
| Position rank | TE11 | TE13 | |
| Market ADP | 147.3 | 136.6 | Kincaid +10.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 13 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 8 |
Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Isaiah Likely in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.1 projected points (9.0 vs 8.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dalton Kincaid or Isaiah Likely in 2026 fantasy football?
Dalton Kincaid. He projects 144.1 fantasy points with -33.9 value over replacement, vs 137.2 points and -40.8 for Isaiah Likely (TE, PPR).