Travis Kelce vs Dalton Kincaid
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Travis Kelce by 0.7 projected points (10.2 vs 9.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Travis Kelce faces MIA, the 7th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dalton Kincaid faces LAC, the 4th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Travis Kelce: a clear but modest edge of 12.9 points of value over replacement (-21.4 vs -34.3).
The draft market agrees: Travis Kelce goes first at ADP 108.5 vs 147.3 for Dalton Kincaid.
| Travis KelceKAN | Dalton KincaidBUF | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | MIA | LAC | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 10.2 | 9.4 | Kelce +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #7 | #4 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 157.1 | 144.1 | Kelce +12.9 pts |
| Points per game | 9.2 | 8.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -21.4 | -34.3 | Kelce +12.9 |
| Overall rank | #100 | #108 | Kelce by 8 |
| Position rank | TE10 | TE11 | |
| Market ADP | 108.5 | 147.3 | Kincaid +38.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 5 | 7 |
Should I start Travis Kelce or Dalton Kincaid in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Travis Kelce by 0.7 projected points (10.2 vs 9.4), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Travis Kelce or Dalton Kincaid in 2026 fantasy football?
Travis Kelce. He projects 157.1 fantasy points with -21.4 value over replacement, vs 144.1 points and -34.3 for Dalton Kincaid (TE, PPR).