Jake Ferguson vs Dallas Goedert
Who should you draft in 2026 fantasy football? Our machine learning model's projections, value over replacement (VBD), and the draft market's lean, refreshed every morning.
TE11
Jake Ferguson
145.6
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The model's pick
VS
TE12
Dallas Goedert
139.2
projected 2026 points (PPR)
The call
The model takes Jake Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 6.3 points of value over replacement (-27.2 vs -33.5).
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dallas Goedert first (ADP 101.0 vs 132.7). If the model is right, Jake Ferguson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Dallas GoedertPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 145.6 | 139.2 | Ferguson +6.3 pts |
| Points per game | 8.6 | 8.2 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -27.2 | -33.5 | Ferguson +6.3 |
| Overall rank | #108 | #118 | Ferguson by 10 |
| Position rank | TE11 | TE12 | |
| Market ADP | 132.7 | 101.0 | Ferguson +31.7 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 10 |
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 145.6 fantasy points with -27.2 value over replacement, vs 139.2 points and -33.5 for Dallas Goedert (TE, PPR).