Jake Ferguson vs Dallas Goedert
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dallas Goedert by 0.3 projected points (8.0 vs 7.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Dallas Goedert faces JAX, the 14th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces TB, the 29th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jake Ferguson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 2.9 points of value over replacement (-38.4 vs -41.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Dallas Goedert first (ADP 121.6 vs 137.4). If the model is right, Jake Ferguson is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Dallas GoedertPHI | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TB | JAX | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.7 | 8.0 | Goedert +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #29 | #14 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 139.6 | 136.7 | Ferguson +2.9 pts |
| Points per game | 8.2 | 8.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -38.4 | -41.3 | Ferguson +2.9 |
| Overall rank | #112 | #118 | Ferguson by 6 |
| Position rank | TE12 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 137.4 | 121.6 | Ferguson +15.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 11 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 10 |
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Dallas Goedert by 0.3 projected points (8.0 vs 7.7), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 139.6 fantasy points with -38.4 value over replacement, vs 136.7 points and -41.3 for Dallas Goedert (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.