Isaiah Likely vs Jake Ferguson
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.4 projected points (8.3 vs 7.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Isaiah Likely faces TEN, the 12th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces BAL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.1 points of value over replacement (-41.2 vs -41.4), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The draft market agrees: Isaiah Likely goes first at ADP 136.6 vs 137.4 for Jake Ferguson.
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | Jake FergusonDAL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | TEN | BAL | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 8.3 | 7.8 | Likely +0.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #12 | #22 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.2 | 137.1 | Likely +0.1 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 8.1 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -41.2 | -41.4 | Likely +0.1 |
| Overall rank | #116 | #117 | Likely by 1 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 136.6 | 137.4 | Ferguson +0.8 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 12 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 14 |
Should I start Isaiah Likely or Jake Ferguson in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 0.4 projected points (8.3 vs 7.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Isaiah Likely or Jake Ferguson in 2026 fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely. He projects 137.2 fantasy points with -41.2 value over replacement, vs 137.1 points and -41.4 for Jake Ferguson (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.