Jake Ferguson vs Hunter Henry
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Hunter Henry by 0.5 projected points (8.0 vs 7.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Hunter Henry faces LV, the 6th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Jake Ferguson faces TB, the 29th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Jake Ferguson ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jake Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 9.6 points of value over replacement (-41.4 vs -51.0).
The draft market agrees: Jake Ferguson goes first at ADP 137.4 vs 154.5 for Hunter Henry.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Hunter HenryNWE | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | TB | LV | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 7.5 | 8.0 | Henry +0.5 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #29 | #6 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.1 | 127.5 | Ferguson +9.6 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -41.4 | -51.0 | Ferguson +9.6 |
| Overall rank | #118 | #127 | Ferguson by 9 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 137.4 | 154.5 | Henry +17.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 11 |
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Hunter Henry in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Hunter Henry by 0.5 projected points (8.0 vs 7.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Hunter Henry in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 137.1 fantasy points with -41.4 value over replacement, vs 127.5 points and -51.0 for Hunter Henry (TE, PPR).