Jake Ferguson vs Juwan Johnson
Who should you start in Week 3? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 3
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.3 projected points (7.8 vs 7.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Jake Ferguson faces BAL, the 22nd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Juwan Johnson faces LV, the 13th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Jake Ferguson: a clear but modest edge of 11.7 points of value over replacement (-41.4 vs -53.0).
The draft market agrees: Jake Ferguson goes first at ADP 137.4 vs 154.5 for Juwan Johnson.
| Jake FergusonDAL | Juwan JohnsonNOR | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 opponent | BAL | LV | |
| Projected Week 3 points | 7.8 | 7.5 | Ferguson +0.3 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #22 | #13 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 137.1 | 125.4 | Ferguson +11.7 pts |
| Points per game | 8.1 | 7.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -41.4 | -53.0 | Ferguson +11.7 |
| Overall rank | #117 | #132 | Ferguson by 15 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE17 | |
| Market ADP | 137.4 | 154.5 | Johnson +17.1 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 14 | 8 |
Should I start Jake Ferguson or Juwan Johnson in Week 3?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Jake Ferguson by 0.3 projected points (7.8 vs 7.5), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Juwan Johnson in 2026 fantasy football?
Jake Ferguson. He projects 137.1 fantasy points with -41.4 value over replacement, vs 125.4 points and -53.0 for Juwan Johnson (TE, PPR).