Isaiah Likely vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.8 projected points (10.1 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Isaiah Likely faces ARI, the 26th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Isaiah Likely ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Isaiah Likely, and it isn't close: 18.0 points of value over replacement separate them (-28.6 vs -46.6).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ARI | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 9.3 | 10.1 | Gesicki +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #26 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.9 | 150.9 | Likely +18.0 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 8.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.6 | -46.6 | Likely +18.0 |
| Overall rank | #101 | #124 | Likely by 23 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 136.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 |
Should I start Isaiah Likely or Mike Gesicki in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.8 projected points (10.1 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Isaiah Likely or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely. He projects 168.9 fantasy points with -28.6 value over replacement, vs 150.9 points and -46.6 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR).