Isaiah Likely vs Darren Waller
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
Start Isaiah Likely this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (9.3 vs 7.9).
Isaiah Likely faces ARI, the 26th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Darren Waller faces MIN, the 31st-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Isaiah Likely, and it isn't close: 15.7 points of value over replacement separate them (-28.6 vs -44.4).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | Darren WallerMIA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ARI | MIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 9.3 | 7.9 | Likely +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #26 | #31 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.9 | 153.1 | Likely +15.7 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.0 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.6 | -44.4 | Likely +15.7 |
| Overall rank | #101 | #119 | Likely by 18 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE15 | |
| Market ADP | 136.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | - | |
| Bye week | 8 | 6 |
Should I start Isaiah Likely or Darren Waller in Week 4?
Start Isaiah Likely this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (9.3 vs 7.9).
Should I draft Isaiah Likely or Darren Waller in 2026 fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely. He projects 168.9 fantasy points with -28.6 value over replacement, vs 153.1 points and -44.4 for Darren Waller (TE, PPR).