Isaiah Likely vs Tucker Kraft
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tucker Kraft by 0.7 projected points (10.0 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Tucker Kraft faces TB, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Isaiah Likely faces ARI, the 26th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Isaiah Likely ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
This one is a coin flip. The model leans Isaiah Likely by 3.6 points of value over replacement (-28.6 vs -32.3), close enough that your roster build should break the tie.
The room sees it the other way: drafters take Tucker Kraft first (ADP 105.7 vs 136.6). If the model is right, Isaiah Likely is the value pick, since the later cost buys the better 2026 projection.
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | Tucker KraftGNB | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | ARI | TB | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 9.3 | 10.0 | Kraft +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #26 | #10 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 168.9 | 165.3 | Likely +3.6 pts |
| Points per game | 9.9 | 9.7 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -28.6 | -32.3 | Likely +3.6 |
| Overall rank | #101 | #107 | Likely by 6 |
| Position rank | TE13 | TE14 | |
| Market ADP | 136.6 | 105.7 | Likely +30.9 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 12 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 8 | 11 |
Should I start Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Tucker Kraft by 0.7 projected points (10.0 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft in 2026 fantasy football?
Isaiah Likely. He projects 168.9 fantasy points with -28.6 value over replacement, vs 165.3 points and -32.3 for Tucker Kraft (TE, PPR). It's close enough to let roster needs decide.