Tucker Kraft vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.1 projected points (10.1 vs 10.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Tucker Kraft faces TB, the 10th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Tucker Kraft ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Tucker Kraft: a clear but modest edge of 14.4 points of value over replacement (-32.3 vs -46.6).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Tucker KraftGNB | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | TB | JAX | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 10.0 | 10.1 | Gesicki +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #10 | #3 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 165.3 | 150.9 | Kraft +14.4 pts |
| Points per game | 9.7 | 8.9 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -32.3 | -46.6 | Kraft +14.4 |
| Overall rank | #107 | #124 | Kraft by 17 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 105.7 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 9 | - | |
| Bye week | 11 | 6 |
Should I start Tucker Kraft or Mike Gesicki in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.1 projected points (10.1 vs 10.0), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Tucker Kraft or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
Tucker Kraft. He projects 165.3 fantasy points with -32.3 value over replacement, vs 150.9 points and -46.6 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR).