Dallas Goedert vs Mike Gesicki
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.7 projected points (10.6 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces MIA, the 5th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Dallas Goedert faces JAX, the 16th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Dallas Goedert ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 5, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Dallas Goedert: a clear but modest edge of 5.8 points of value over replacement (-22.8 vs -28.6).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
Health note: Dallas Goedert carries an injury flag of Questionable (Knee - MCL), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Dallas GoedertPHI | Mike GesickiCIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | JAX | MIA | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 9.9 | 10.6 | Gesicki +0.7 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 30) | #16 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 169.2 | 163.4 | Goedert +5.8 pts |
| Points per game | 10.0 | 9.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -22.8 | -28.6 | Goedert +5.8 |
| Overall rank | #95 | #105 | Goedert by 10 |
| Position rank | TE14 | TE16 | |
| Market ADP | 121.6 | - | |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 11 | - | |
| Bye week | 10 | 6 | |
| Injury flag | Questionable | None |
Should I start Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki in Week 5?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.7 projected points (10.6 vs 9.9), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki in 2026 fantasy football?
Dallas Goedert. He projects 169.2 fantasy points with -22.8 value over replacement, vs 163.4 points and -28.6 for Mike Gesicki (TE, PPR).