Caleb Williams vs Patrick Mahomes
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.1 projected points (17.9 vs 17.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Patrick Mahomes faces LV, the 5th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Caleb Williams faces NYJ, the 15th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
Season-long, the model still ranks Caleb Williams ahead. This is a matchup call for Week 4, not a change of heart about the rest of the year.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Caleb Williams, and it isn't close: 18.5 points of value over replacement separate them (27.8 vs 9.3).
The draft market agrees: Caleb Williams goes first at ADP 86.0 vs 104.0 for Patrick Mahomes.
Health note: Caleb Williams carries an injury flag of Out (Hamstring), which is already reflected in his projection.
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Patrick MahomesKAN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | NYJ | LV | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 17.8 | 17.9 | Mahomes +0.1 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 32) | #15 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 298.6 | 280.1 | Williams +18.5 pts |
| Points per game | 17.6 | 16.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | 27.8 | 9.3 | Williams +18.5 |
| Overall rank | #48 | #63 | Williams by 15 |
| Position rank | QB7 | QB10 | |
| Market ADP | 86.0 | 104.0 | Mahomes +18.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 9 | |
| Bye week | 10 | 5 | |
| Injury flag | Out | None |
Should I start Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Patrick Mahomes by 0.1 projected points (17.9 vs 17.8), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 fantasy football?
Caleb Williams. He projects 298.6 fantasy points with 27.8 value over replacement, vs 280.1 points and 9.3 for Patrick Mahomes (QB, PPR).