Trevor Lawrence vs C.J. Stroud
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (16.8 vs 14.9).
Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. C.J. Stroud faces TEN, the 24th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Trevor Lawrence: a clear but modest edge of 8.4 points of value over replacement (-12.0 vs -20.4).
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 91.1 vs 155.7 for C.J. Stroud.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | C.J. StroudHOU | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | TEN | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.8 | 14.9 | Lawrence +1.9 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #11 | #24 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 273.2 | 264.9 | Lawrence +8.4 pts |
| Points per game | 16.1 | 15.6 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.0 | -20.4 | Lawrence +8.4 |
| Overall rank | #80 | #92 | Lawrence by 12 |
| Position rank | QB13 | QB15 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 155.7 | Stroud +64.6 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 13 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 8 |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud in Week 5?
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.9 projected points (16.8 vs 14.9).
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 273.2 fantasy points with -12.0 value over replacement, vs 264.9 points and -20.4 for C.J. Stroud (QB, PPR).