Trevor Lawrence vs Aaron Rodgers
Who should you start in Week 5? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 5
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (16.8 vs 15.4).
Trevor Lawrence faces PHI, the 11th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week. Aaron Rodgers faces IND, the 19th-friendliest matchup a QB can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Trevor Lawrence: a clear but modest edge of 9.6 points of value over replacement (-12.0 vs -21.6).
The draft market agrees: Trevor Lawrence goes first at ADP 91.1 vs 183.1 for Aaron Rodgers.
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Aaron RodgersPIT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 opponent | PHI | IND | |
| Projected Week 5 points | 16.8 | 15.4 | Lawrence +1.4 pts |
| Matchup rank (QB vs defense, of 30) | #11 | #19 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 273.2 | 263.7 | Lawrence +9.6 pts |
| Points per game | 16.1 | 15.5 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -12.0 | -21.6 | Lawrence +9.6 |
| Overall rank | #80 | #93 | Lawrence by 13 |
| Position rank | QB13 | QB16 | |
| Market ADP | 91.1 | 183.1 | Rodgers +92.0 cheaper |
| Typical round (12-team) | Rd 8 | Rd 16 | |
| Bye week | 7 | 9 |
Should I start Trevor Lawrence or Aaron Rodgers in Week 5?
Start Trevor Lawrence this week: a clear but modest edge of 1.4 projected points (16.8 vs 15.4).
Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Aaron Rodgers in 2026 fantasy football?
Trevor Lawrence. He projects 273.2 fantasy points with -12.0 value over replacement, vs 263.7 points and -21.6 for Aaron Rodgers (QB, PPR).