Mike Gesicki vs Brenton Strange
Who should you start in Week 4? This week's matchups and projections.
Who to start in Week 4
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.8 projected points (10.1 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Mike Gesicki faces JAX, the 3rd-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week. Brenton Strange faces CIN, the 5th-friendliest matchup a TE can draw this week.
This-week points are each player's projected per-game scoring rate adjusted for the matchup.
The season-long call
The model takes Mike Gesicki: a clear but modest edge of 7.7 points of value over replacement (-46.6 vs -54.4).
The draft market hasn't priced this matchup yet, so treat it as a pure model call.
| Mike GesickiCIN | Brenton StrangeJAX | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 opponent | JAX | CIN | |
| Projected Week 4 points | 10.1 | 9.3 | Gesicki +0.8 pts |
| Matchup rank (TE vs defense, of 32) | #3 | #5 | |
| Projected 2026 points (PPR) | 150.9 | 143.2 | Gesicki +7.7 pts |
| Points per game | 8.9 | 8.4 | |
| Value over replacement (VBD) | -46.6 | -54.4 | Gesicki +7.7 |
| Overall rank | #124 | #130 | Gesicki by 6 |
| Position rank | TE16 | TE18 | |
| Market ADP | - | 162.8 | |
| Typical round (12-team) | - | Rd 14 | |
| Bye week | 6 | 7 |
Should I start Mike Gesicki or Brenton Strange in Week 4?
This week is a coin flip. The model leans Mike Gesicki by 0.8 projected points (10.1 vs 9.3), close enough that either call is defensible.
Should I draft Mike Gesicki or Brenton Strange in 2026 fantasy football?
Mike Gesicki. He projects 150.9 fantasy points with -46.6 value over replacement, vs 143.2 points and -54.4 for Brenton Strange (TE, PPR).